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Big Brother
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Post #45839
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Posted: Sat 2007-08-04 15:57
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| Politics: Libertarian-Syndicalist |
Country: American Empire |
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| St. Louis Straw Poll |
Post Rating: 0.0/4 (0 votes cast) |
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I'm about ready to leave for the National Federation of Republican Assemblies (NFRA) straw poll convention, being held in St. Louis. Our local Ron Paul MeetUp Group will be having a Barbecue at a park located a couple blocks away from the main event. Ron Paul's son, Rand, will be meeting with our group and giving a speech!
Happy, Happy, Happy!
I'll post some pics of the event when I get back.
And BTW... I know I've been somewhat of an "absentee landlord" these past few weeks. I only posted 7 times last month (my lowest level of activity since the board was created in 2004), and I have generally ignored the various dramas taking place on the board (although I usually ignore that sort of stuff anyway).
My absence was due to various economic catastrophes and other miscellaneous activities in the 3-dimentinoal world. But I'm hoping this will change soon. I just started a new job last week, and once I get settled in this job will turn into a "Maytag Repairman" type of job ... meaning than I'll have copious amounts of PAID free time on my hands, which will allow me once again to rant at my usual 40,000 word-per-month rate.
_________________
"The Aim of an Argument ... should not be victory, but progress." - Joseph Joubert (1754-1824)
"Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful." - Seneca the Younger
"It is often argued that religion is valuable because it makes men good, but even if this were true it would not be a proof that religion is true. That would be an extension of pragmatism beyond endurance. Santa Claus makes children good in precisely the same way, and yet no one would argue seriously that the fact proves his existence. The defense of religion is full of such logical imbecilities." - H. L. Mencken
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One Of The Few
Minister of Truth
Post #45842
Joined: 04 Sep 2004
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Posted: Sat 2007-08-04 16:28
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| Politics: Just plain NUTS! |
Country: Scotland |
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Post Rating: 0.0/4 (0 votes cast) |
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It's great to hear from you again, BB. Incidentally, I have put up a thread covering polls and predictions (from as politically impartial perspective I can manage) in the Political and Economic Theory section. I'd be overjoyed if you were to contribute anything you can in the noble pursuit of odds-making.
It's also good to here that your own economic situation is a bit better now.
Ron Paul's son is called Rand? I wonder if he has a daughter, and if that daughter is called Ayn... 
_________________
If you can't say what you mean then you'll never mean what you say
God holds no fears
Death no worries
And while good is readily attainable
Evil is readily endurable |
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Kenos
Spy
Post #45850
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Posted: Sat 2007-08-04 18:15
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There's drama on this site?  |
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sorianofan
Filthy Animal
Post #45943
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Posted: Mon 2007-08-06 16:24
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| Politics: Libertarian |
Country: American Empire |
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| Re: St. Louis Straw Poll |
Post Rating: 0.0/4 (0 votes cast) |
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| Big Brother wrote: |
I'm about ready to leave for the National Federation of Republican Assemblies (NFRA) straw poll convention, being held in St. Louis. Our local Ron Paul MeetUp Group will be having a Barbecue at a park located a couple blocks away from the main event. Ron Paul's son, Rand, will be meeting with our group and giving a speech!
Happy, Happy, Happy!
I'll post some pics of the event when I get back.
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Do that soon, and please let us know how long your highway "ron paul" signs lasted.
It looks like your efforts helped a great deal. Look:
| From http://arkansasgopwing.blogspot.com/2007/08/fred-thomson-wins-nfra-straw-poll.html |
Fred Thomson Wins NFRA Straw Poll Giuliani and McCain Receive Resolutions of Strong Disapproval
by Dr. Bill Smith, ARRA Editor (note: I was not a delegate at the convention; only a news reporter):
[Updated] The 2007 National Federation of Republican Assemblies (NFRA) Convention was held in St. Louis this weekend. The convention began on Friday and ended Sunday evening. Over 250 people attended the convention.
Several speakers provided workshops for the delegates and guests. The Convention board had to make several last minute adjustment when scheduled Republican presidential candidates could not attend. Representatives Duncan Hunter and Ron Paul could not attend when the US House was kept in session. Others had to redirect their efforts to Iowa when ABC announced they would interview candidates Sunday morning. John Cox who had not been invited to participate in the Iowa interviews spoke at the convention. Campaign representatives for Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, and Duncan Hunter also spoke on behalf of their candidates.
A "straw poll" was conducted by secret ballot:
Fred Thompson 33%
Mitt Romney 15%
Ron Paul 14%
Duncan Hunter 10%
Tom Tancredo 10%
John Cox 6%
Newt Gingrich 3%
Mike Huckabee 3%
Tommy Thompson 2%
John McCain 2%
Rudy Giuliani 1%
Sam Brownback 1%
In a separate session, convention delegates took action to determine if they would endorse a candidate. Rules required that the delegates cast their votes while in session for candidates that they wish to endorse. Only candidates receiving more than 15% of the delegates votes in the first round of voting may be considered for endorsement. After this first round of voting only two candidates received more than 15% of the delegates votes. Those candidates were Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter. For a candidate to be endorsed, it takes two-thirds of the delegates to agree with the endorsement. Six more ballots and spirited debate, neither Thompson nor Hunter received the required two thirds vote by the delegates in order to be officially endorsed by the NFRA.
In addition, delegates introduced resolutions to "censure" two "top-tier" Republican presidential candidates. The word "censure" was amended to "strong disapproval." The delegates voted to express their "strong disapproval of Senator John McCain because of his actions in developing and promoting immigration reform that would have in essence granted amnesty to illegal aliens. Delegates also voted to expresse "strong disapproval" of former Mayor Rudy Giuliani because of his positions on marriage and civil unions for homosexuals, favoring gun control, and having positions conflicting with the pro-life platform of the Republican Party.
The convention elected new NFRA national officers which will be reflected on their website. Of special note were the elections of Rod Martin as NFRA President and Chris Brown as Executive Vice President. |
Wow, Ron Paul was 1 percent behind Mitt Romney. I know that the Ron Paul campaign has been really trying to win Iowa, and it can be a major upset (Thompson is not in the Iowa straw poll.)
Listen to the applause during the Iowa debates for Paul*
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyGKmqk7Khg
*Even if Ron Paul supporters made sure to get in there and clap, notice how they still outweighed the booers. Thus, the majority of the Republican base likes or is not offended by Paul.
And according to Lew Rockwell:
| From External Source |
And here's some inside info: Fox News held a focus group in a diner near Drake University, where the debate was held. 25 people rated the candidates' answers on Fox laptops, and thanks to a Des Moines Meet-Up member who was able to attend as a restaurant worker, here's an inside report:
Ron's answers were rated far higher than other candidates--indeed, one was so high it froze the main computer, requiring a reboot--and when the 25 people were asked to vote on the winner after the debate by raising their hands, Ron also won.
Whether the Sean Hannity producer who ran the focus group will be reporting on this, I think we know. |
Paul might really surprise people.
_________________
Luke 6:37:
"Do not judge, and you will not be judged. Do not condemn, and you will not be condemned. Forgive, and you will be forgiven." |
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Kenos
Spy
Post #46168
Joined: 21 Aug 2004
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Posted: Mon 2007-08-13 07:12
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http://www.iowagop.net/shownews.asp?artid=20
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Mitt Romney Wins Iowa Straw Poll
With attendance of 33,000 and votes cast by more than 14,000, Republican party officials called the 2007 Iowa Straw Poll a resounding success. No one was more pleased than Governor Mitt Romney who received 4,516 votes to win the Straw Poll.
In second place Governor Mike Huckabee earned 2,587 votes and was followed by Senator Sam Brownback who received 2,192 ballots cast in his favor. In a close fourth, U.S. Representative Tom Tancredo received 1,961 votes. In fifth place was U.S. Representative Ron Paul with 1,305. Governor Tommy Thompson finished in sixth place with 1,029 votes and was followed by seventh place finisher, and undeclared candidate, Fred Thompson who had 203 votes cast for him. Mayor Rudy Giuliani received 183 votes for eighth place followed by U.S. Representative Duncan Hunter in ninth place with 174 votes. Senator John McCain, in 10th position, got 101 votes. And finishing last with 41 votes was John Cox.
"Reports of the demise of the Iowa Straw Poll were premature and proven false today," stated Ray Hoffmann, chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa. "Activists turned out in great numbers to support their candidates despite a heat index exceeding 100 degrees. The atmosphere here rivaled that of the State Fair."
New voting procedures were in place at the Iowa Straw Poll which required presentation and validation of a photo ID along with a ticket. "Iowans proudly stepped up to meet our voting requirements," Chuck Laudner, executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa, remarked. "To see more than 14,000 purple thumbs on this campus was thrilling."
With theses new voting procedures in place, party officials were confident all votes were cast by Iowans only. "Tickets were punched then scanned along with photo IDs," Laudner explained. "Our process guaranteed the one person, one vote ideal was upheld. We believe photo identification should be required before any vote is cast in Iowa elections and today we proved the process was not only possible, it was effective and efficient."
The Iowa Straw Poll continues a decades' long tradition of testing candidates' organizational strength, bringing likely caucus-goers together, and winnowing the field. In the 1999 caucus, 89,000 participated. Today's Straw Poll vote tally represents more than 15 percent of that total, the most representative sample of likely voters' opinions, Laudner concluded. |
Hadn't seen this posted anywhere yet. From these polls it looks like Ron Paul is a at the backend of the front runners or at the frontend of the backrunners
Surprising how the bigshots score so low, but then I'm fairly certain that these types of polls are lopsided in favour of the smaller candidates who can rouse up more passionate support during these rather symbolic stages. I think giulliani at least will score better when it's the real deal... not that I don't want to see Ron Paul win! |
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Acebrock
Minster of Plenty
Post #46203
Joined: 18 Jan 2006
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Posted: Mon 2007-08-13 18:37
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| Politics: Libertarian-Socialist |
Country: United States of Oppression |
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Post Rating: 0.0/4 (0 votes cast) |
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| Kenos wrote: |
http://www.iowagop.net/shownews.asp?artid=20
| Quote: |
Mitt Romney Wins Iowa Straw Poll
With attendance of 33,000 and votes cast by more than 14,000, Republican party officials called the 2007 Iowa Straw Poll a resounding success. No one was more pleased than Governor Mitt Romney who received 4,516 votes to win the Straw Poll.
In second place Governor Mike Huckabee earned 2,587 votes and was followed by Senator Sam Brownback who received 2,192 ballots cast in his favor. In a close fourth, U.S. Representative Tom Tancredo received 1,961 votes. In fifth place was U.S. Representative Ron Paul with 1,305. Governor Tommy Thompson finished in sixth place with 1,029 votes and was followed by seventh place finisher, and undeclared candidate, Fred Thompson who had 203 votes cast for him. Mayor Rudy Giuliani received 183 votes for eighth place followed by U.S. Representative Duncan Hunter in ninth place with 174 votes. Senator John McCain, in 10th position, got 101 votes. And finishing last with 41 votes was John Cox.
"Reports of the demise of the Iowa Straw Poll were premature and proven false today," stated Ray Hoffmann, chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa. "Activists turned out in great numbers to support their candidates despite a heat index exceeding 100 degrees. The atmosphere here rivaled that of the State Fair."
New voting procedures were in place at the Iowa Straw Poll which required presentation and validation of a photo ID along with a ticket. "Iowans proudly stepped up to meet our voting requirements," Chuck Laudner, executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa, remarked. "To see more than 14,000 purple thumbs on this campus was thrilling."
With theses new voting procedures in place, party officials were confident all votes were cast by Iowans only. "Tickets were punched then scanned along with photo IDs," Laudner explained. "Our process guaranteed the one person, one vote ideal was upheld. We believe photo identification should be required before any vote is cast in Iowa elections and today we proved the process was not only possible, it was effective and efficient."
The Iowa Straw Poll continues a decades' long tradition of testing candidates' organizational strength, bringing likely caucus-goers together, and winnowing the field. In the 1999 caucus, 89,000 participated. Today's Straw Poll vote tally represents more than 15 percent of that total, the most representative sample of likely voters' opinions, Laudner concluded. |
Hadn't seen this posted anywhere yet. From these polls it looks like Ron Paul is a at the backend of the front runners or at the frontend of the backrunners
Surprising how the bigshots score so low, but then I'm fairly certain that these types of polls are lopsided in favour of the smaller candidates who can rouse up more passionate support during these rather symbolic stages. I think giulliani at least will score better when it's the real deal... not that I don't want to see Ron Paul win! |
That poll can hardly beconsidered representative as two of the top candidates, Giuliani and McCain, didn't participate.
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Big Brother
Administrator
Post #46228
Joined: 14 Feb 2004
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Posted: Tue 2007-08-14 10:00
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| Politics: Libertarian-Syndicalist |
Country: American Empire |
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| Rand Paul Day |
Post Rating: 0.0/4 (0 votes cast) |
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I'm a little slow in posting this, but better late than never.
Here's the results of the St. Louis straw poll.
1. Fred Thompson 33%
2. Mitt Romney 15%
3. Ron Paul 14%
4. Duncan Hunter 10%
5. Tom Tancredo 10%
6. John Cox 6%
7. Newt Gingrich 3%
8. Mike Huckabee 3%
9. Tommy Thompson 2%
10. John McCain 2%
11. Rudy Giuliani 1%
12. Sam Brownback 1%
The interesting thing is that McCain and Giuliani did just as lousy in St. Louis as they did in Ames.
Rand's speech in the fancy-shmancy room....
(The blonde in the foreground in Rand's hot ass wife)
And Rand even had the chance to get his picture taken with me. Lucky him. 
A paper in St. Louis ran this story about the event. They failed to mention Ron Paul, or the horde of Ron Paul supporters who showed up at the event -- despite the fact that Dr. Paul placed 3rd in the straw poll. The article focused almost entirely on a speech given by Tom Delay, but it also mentioned just about every other person who attended the event -- with the noticeable exception of Rand Paul. The closest that they got to talking about Rand was when they mentioned that "stand-ins represented several lesser-known candidates".
The person who wrote this article calls herself a reporter? Was she attending the same convention that I was? At the event I saw about 1 Mitt Romney supporter, 2 Tancredo supporters, and about 50 Ron Paul supporters. Ron Paul placed 3rd in the poll (missing 2nd place by 1%), and yet the article doesn't mention any of this. I'm not sure how it is possible to write a story about the event and not mention these obvious details.
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| AceBrock wrote: |
| Kenos wrote: |
Surprising how the bigshots score so low, but then I'm fairly certain that these types of polls are lopsided in favour of the smaller candidates who can rouse up more passionate support during these rather symbolic stages. I think Giuliani at least will score better when it's the real deal... not that I don't want to see Ron Paul win! |
That poll can hardly be considered representative as two of the top candidates, Giuliani and McCain, didn't participate. |
McCain, Giuliani, and Fred Thompson were on the ballot in Iowa, but they didn't waste $2,000,000 on buying votes the way Romney did. Even though these guys didn’t actively campaign in Iowa, I am still shocked by how LOUSY they scored in the poll. I never would have guessed that two of the “front-runners” (McCain and Giuliani) would only get 1% in the poll.
Check out this pre-poll prediction:
source
They were close (as long as you swap Giuliani’s name with Paul's).
The funniest thing of all is that Romney bought 10,000 tickets, yet only received 4500 votes. Paul bought 800 tickets (each candidate had to buy that many in order to participate in the event), and got 1300 votes. I wonder how many of those extra 500 votes Romney paid for. 
Btw... did anybody notice anything odd with this poll? They were supposed to announce the poll results at 7pm (1 hour after the poll concluded), yet for some reason the results didn’t come out until about 8:30pm. They said the reason for the delay was that they were having “problems” with one of the voting machines..... an electronic voting machine.... a DIEBOLD electronic voting machine. They ran the poll with 60 of those crappy Diebold voting machines, and they couldn't get the damn things to work right.
If you can’t trust these machine to run a straw poll, who are we supposed to trust them in a national election?
I wonder if the problem with the machines was that it kept spitting out a result that they didn't like. I find it strange that 26,000 voting tickets we sold, yet only 14,302 ballots were actually cast. That's almost half of the votes missing. What happened to these other 12,000 tickets? I suppose it's possible that these people just bought a ticket in order to attend the event, and for some reason they just didn't get around to voting. But it does make you wonder.
_________________
"The Aim of an Argument ... should not be victory, but progress." - Joseph Joubert (1754-1824)
"Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful." - Seneca the Younger
"It is often argued that religion is valuable because it makes men good, but even if this were true it would not be a proof that religion is true. That would be an extension of pragmatism beyond endurance. Santa Claus makes children good in precisely the same way, and yet no one would argue seriously that the fact proves his existence. The defense of religion is full of such logical imbecilities." - H. L. Mencken
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Big Brother
Administrator
Post #46437
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Posted: Fri 2007-08-17 15:38
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| Politics: Libertarian-Syndicalist |
Country: American Empire |
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| Iowa recount |
Post Rating: 0.0/4 (0 votes cast) |
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| Big Brother wrote: |
Btw... did anybody notice anything odd with this poll? They were supposed to announce the poll results at 7pm (1 hour after the poll concluded), yet for some reason the results didn’t come out until about 8:30pm. They said the reason for the delay was that they were having “problems” with one of the voting machines..... an electronic voting machine.... a DIEBOLD electronic voting machine. They ran the poll with 60 of those crappy Diebold voting machines, and they couldn't get the damn things to work right.
If you can’t trust these machine to run a straw poll, who are we supposed to trust them in a national election?
I wonder if the problem with the machines was that it kept spitting out a result that they didn't like. I find it strange that 26,000 voting tickets we sold, yet only 14,302 ballots were actually cast. That's almost half of the votes missing. What happened to these other 12,000 tickets? I suppose it's possible that these people just bought a ticket in order to attend the event, and for some reason they just didn't get around to voting. But it does make you wonder.
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Take a look at this video of the results being announced in Iowa.
Seriously... watch that video as they read off the top 5 winners. You almost get the idea that they had accidentally gotten the order reversed. Ron Paul received that largest applause, Brownback had plenty of supporters on hand, and Huckabee had a sizable group as well….. yet Mitt Romney --- the "Winner" of the debate --- had only 3 supporters who stuck around to cheer his victory.
Three.
This next video sums up the media coverage pretty well.
The reason that I bring this up is that there is a group named votefraud.org who are considering taking legal action concerning the poll results. The situation is that Ron Paul has purchased 800 tickets, and another pro-Paul organization purchased another 643. That's 1463 tickets that went to hard-core Paul supporters. They know where the tickets went, yet Paul only got 1306 votes. And this assumes that no Ron Paul supporters bought their own ticket...and that none took a ticket from Romney to vote for Paul. I suppose that it's possible, but it is a little odd.
The thing that makes this look really odd is that it took over 2 and a half hours to read the results of 60 machines (they claimed they had "computer problems"). This delay is really making a lot of people go, hmmmmmm?....
A similar thing happened back in 1995. The reporting of the results was delayed for over an hour. When the vote-counters finally came out from their little back room meeting these are the results they presented:
1 (tie) Bob Dole - 2,582 Votes - 23.6%
1 (tie) Phil Gramm - 2,582 Votes - 23.6%
3 Pat Buchanan - 1,922 Votes - 17.5%
10,958 people voted, yet they somehow managed to end up with a perfect tie for 1st place! You don't have to be a mathematician to know that the odds of this happening are pretty damn slim. After this occurred, there were a lot of allegations that the vote was fixed in order to hurt Buchanan (Who wasn't very popular with the GOP leadership of the time). The claim is that Buchanan had truly won the poll, and so the Dole and Gramm camps both decided that Buchanan should be kicked out of first place. Yet, even though they agreed that Buchanan shouldn’t win, they argued over who would take his place.... so an unbelievable deal was reach to allow BOTH candidates to take 1st place.
There's no evidence of this, of course. But strange statistical happenings such as this (and the closed-door counting procedure) do cause people to wonder.
And speaking of strange statistical chance, take a look at the results of a little informal exit poll conducted by a group called "Vote In Sunshine".
I'm not sure of what to make of this. The results for most of the candidates match up well with the official results.... all except for 3 candidates, whose numbers are WAY off. SOMEBODY here is fudging the numbers.
Is it really possible that Paul won the poll, but this fact was altered during that strange 2-and-a-half hour count?
This exit poll was conducted by 4 Ron Paul supporters, so I'm not sure they really can be trusted. They claim that they videotaped their count and that this video will be made public soon, so guess we'll just have to wait and see. But even though I think Paul should have performed slightly better (perhaps as high as the 15%-20% range), I find it hard to believe that he really could have gotten 37% of the vote and that Romney only got 10%. It really looks to me like these 4 supporters decided to swap Romney's and Paul's numbers. Or perhaps they simply took the exit poll at a time when Romney’s busses were no longer unloading, and when a large group of Paul supporters happened to walk over from their gathering to vote.
It wouldn't surprise me if some vote tampering had taken place, but these numbers look a little too extreme to be believable. It would be great if this was true, but I’m a little skeptical of fairy tales. One of the poll watchers says that he saw the results of a few individual machines, and these machines showed Paul coming in 2nd - 4th place. But this could just be attributed to random statistical variance between the machines. We’ll never know, since the Iowa GOP won't let anybody look at the ballots.
Why are they hiding the ballots?
If you want more details you can go here and here. It is important to note that the group that is taking the legal action is not necessarily a Pro-Paul group. Their prime motivation is that this poll provides a golden opportunity to prove that Diebold voting systems are open to fraud. They are trying to collect more than 1306 affidavits from people who voted Paul in the poll. If they succeed, this could provide a legal basis for closer scrutiny of Diebold. And I think everybody agrees that this would be a good thing.
_________________
"The Aim of an Argument ... should not be victory, but progress." - Joseph Joubert (1754-1824)
"Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful." - Seneca the Younger
"It is often argued that religion is valuable because it makes men good, but even if this were true it would not be a proof that religion is true. That would be an extension of pragmatism beyond endurance. Santa Claus makes children good in precisely the same way, and yet no one would argue seriously that the fact proves his existence. The defense of religion is full of such logical imbecilities." - H. L. Mencken
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Tristan
Committee Leader
Post #46442
Joined: 14 Feb 2006
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Posted: Fri 2007-08-17 16:59
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| Politics: Republican (U.S. Conservative) |
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| Re: Rand Paul Day |
Post Rating: 0.0/4 (0 votes cast) |
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| Big Brother wrote: |
A paper in St. Louis ran this story about the event. They failed to mention Ron Paul, or the horde of Ron Paul supporters who showed up at the event -- despite the fact that Dr. Paul placed 3rd in the straw poll. The article focused almost entirely on a speech given by Tom Delay, but it also mentioned just about every other person who attended the event -- with the noticeable exception of Rand Paul. The closest that they got to talking about Rand was when they mentioned that "stand-ins represented several lesser-known candidates".
The person who wrote this article calls herself a reporter? Was she attending the same convention that I was? At the event I saw about 1 Mitt Romney supporter, 2 Tancredo supporters, and about 50 Ron Paul supporters. Ron Paul placed 3rd in the poll (missing 2nd place by 1%), and yet the article doesn't mention any of this. I'm not sure how it is possible to write a story about the event and not mention these obvious details. |
I'm so glad you went to that convention to see the machinery for itself! This first-hand knowledge of how the media obscures and makes up lies about hostile interests is an important part of becoming a Republican. |
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